Ray Kurzweil’s predictions for 2009
These were made in 1999. Let’s see how accurate he was.
(Click on Read more, it’s a looong post.)
THE COMPUTER
It is now 2009. Individuals primarily use portable computers, which have become dramatically lighter and thinner than the notebook computers of ten years earlier. Personal computers are available in a wide range of sizes and shapes, and are commonly embedded in clothing and jewelry such as wristwatches, rings, earrings, and other body ornaments. Computers with a high-resolution visual interface range from rings and pins and credit cards up to the size of a thin book.
Correct and incorrect.
Laptops have surpassed desktop sales already last year. They are extremely light and small. (MacBook Air, eeePC, iPhone, Nokia Internet Tablet, Pandora). Wristwatches are on their way out (overtaken by the mobile phone) and I have not seen any real progress on intelligent clothing or any accessory-embedded computers.
People typically have at least a dozen computers on and around their bodies, which are networked using “body LANs” (local area networks).1 These computers provide communication facilities similar to cellular phones, pagers, and web surfers, monitor body functions, provide automated identity (to conduct financial transactions and allow entry into secure areas), provide directions for navigation, and a variety of other services.
Hmm. Kind of correct. I guess he’s talking about spimes (which Bruce invents several years later). Most of the functions are embedded into mobile phones anyway. Pager? Seriously Ray, you should’ve seen that gone. Monitoring body functions is not very important to the generation who use these devices on daily basis. Navigation; yes. Automated identity; PIN-codes, Ray, PIN-codes.
For the most part, these truly personal computers have no moving parts. Memory is completely electronic, and most portable computers do not have keyboards.
Rotating memories (that is, computer memories that use a rotating platten, such as hard drives, CD-ROMs, and DVDs) are on their way out, although rotating magnetic memories are still used in “server” computers where large amounts of information are stored. Most users have servers in their homes and offices where they keep large stores of digital “objects,” including their software, databases, documents, music, movies, and virtual-reality environments (although these are still at an early stage). There are services to keep one’s digital objects in central repositories, but most people prefer to keep their private information under their own physical control.
Yes, computers are starting to use flash memory more and more, and cloud-computing is definitely around the corner(GDrive, Amazon EC2).  And yes, people are still very shy using the cloud.
Cables are disappearing. Communication between components, such as pointing devices, microphones, displays, printers, and the occasional keyboard, uses short-distance wireless technology.
Computers routinely include wireless technology to plug into the ever-present worldwide network, providing reliable, instantly available, very-high-bandwidth communication. Digital objects such as books, music albums, movies, and software are rapidly distributed as data files through the wireless network, and typically do not have a physical object associated with them.
The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition (CSR) dictation software, but keyboards are still used. CSR is very accurate, far more so than the human transcriptionists who were used up until a few years ago.
Also ubiquitous are language user interfaces (LUIs), which combine CSR and natural language understanding. For routine matters, such as simple business transactions and information inquiries, LUIs are quite responsive and precise. They tend to be narrowly focused, however, on specific types of tasks. LUIs are frequently combined with animated personalities. Interacting with an animated personality to conduct a purchase or make a reservation is like talking to a person using videoconferencing, except that the person is simulated.
Cables are disappearing, however the tech behind it is getting ridicoulously difficult to create. Standardization is needed. Yes, everything is now in digital form and can easily be downloaded, however the industry is years behind the revolution and conflicts in intellectual property right are destroying this wonderful technology.
Speech recognition is still in it’s infancy, and will be for several years still. Microsoft was the laughing stock of the world when Vista’s CSR failed to work. Apple is very secretive in their development and the Linux world is not even close on implementing  the technnology.
Computer displays have all the display qualities of paper–high resolution, high contrast, large viewing angle, and no flicker. Books, magazines, and newspapers are now routinely read on displays that are the size of, well, small books.
Computer displays built into eyeglasses are also used. These specialized glasses allow users to see the normal visual environment, while creating a virtual image that appears to hover in front of the viewer. The virtual images are created by a tiny laser built into the glasses that projects the images directly onto the user’s retinas.
Computers routinely include moving picture image cameras and are able to reliably identify their owners from their faces.
In terms of circuitry, three-dimensional chips are commonly used, and there is a transition taking place from the older, single-layer chips.
Sound producing speakers are being replaced with very small chip-based devices that can place high resolution sound anywhere in three-dimensional space. This technology is based on creating audible frequency sounds from the spectrum created by the interaction of very high frequency tones. As a result, very small speakers can create very robust three-dimensional sound.
Well, Kindle is here, but it’s not an everyday object yet. Newspapers are however feeling the pressure to move e-ink, due to costs.
No heads-up displays yet. Augmented reality works on paper, and to some degree on mobile device as well as on computer screen. It is, however, very unstable, and real applications are few and far between. Webcams are on every laptop sold, but they don’t recognise faces at all. Just the shape of the face.
Speakers and headphones are still here, nothing revolutionary has happened in audio technology for awhile.
A $1,000 personal computer (in 1999 dollars) can perform about a trillion calculations per second. Supercomputers match at least the hardware capacity of the human brain–20 million billion calculations per second. Unused computes on the Internet are being harvested, creating virtual parallel supercomputers with human brain hardware capacity.
There is increasing interest in massively parallel neural nets, genetic algorithms, and other forms of “chaotic” or complexity theory computing, although most computer computations are still done using conventional sequential processing, albeit with some limited parallel processing.
Research has been initiated on reverse engineering the human brain through both destructive scans of the brains of recently deceased persons as well as noninvasive scans using high resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of living persons.
Autonomous nanoengineered machines (that is, machines constructed atom by atom and molecule by molecule) have been demonstrated and include their own computational controls. However, nanoengineering is not yet considered a practical technology.
Computers are still on match to the human brain, but the rest of the statements are true.
The rest of Kurzweil’s prediction are here. They are related to education, arts, business and economics, warfare, politics and society and philosophy. Check them out.
